August 31, 2008
September Revenue Forecast Released
The September revenue forecast was released to the House Revenue Committee
last Thursday. The forecast projects a slowing Oregon economy through the
first half of 2009. The Office of Economic Analysis continues to project a
slight decline in growth in the near term, with recovery not expected until
the latter part of 2009. Overall, Oregon continues to experience a milder
decline than the rest of the country. Our exports remain strong in most
sectors and Oregon’s unemployment rate for July (6.0%) continues to be
slightly above the national rate of 5.7%. By contrast, July unemployment
numbers for Clatsop County were 4.5%, Columbia County at 6.3% and Tillamook
at 4.7%.
The September report generally confirms what most Oregon families already know; the State’s economy continues to be sluggish and that trend doesn’t appear to be changing in the near short-term. If there is any good news, it is that we still have an ending balance of $37.7 million for the remainder of the 2007 – 2009 budget cycle. What that means is, while this continuing downturn is serious, it does not appear that the legislature will need to touch the Rainy Day Fund or re-visit agency budgets for the current cycle.
State budget analysts and my colleagues on the State Emergency Board will meet in September and use the information contained in this forecast to make any necessary financial decisions to ensure that our state’s priorities and services are protected.
Then next revenue forecast will be issued on November 25, 2008.
If you would like to view the Executive Summary of the September Forecast, you can download it here:
If you would like to view the complete report, click here:
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The State of Oregon has a Citizen Legislature consisting of the Senate, whose 30 members are elected to serve four-year terms, and the House of Representatives, which has 60 members elected for two-year terms. The assembly convenes every two years in regular session on the second Monday in January during odd-numbered years, a date set by statute. Oregon Constitution does not specify a limitation on session length, however most sessions last approximately six months. During the interim, legislators serve on interim committees and task forces that study issues likely to be faced during the next legislative session.
Oregon’s representative form of government is governed by rules, laws, and procedures. Although the process is long, complex and dominated by committees, all laws begin as someone’s idea.